The goal of this thesis is to analyze the impact that the trade war between the United States and China has had on the automotive, technology and agricultural industries in both countries and around the world. In the first chapter of the thesis the history of trade relations between the United States and China was briefly described. The reasons that led to the emergence of a trade war between the two states were then discussed (context for the implementation of tariffs). The chapter also provides an overview of the tariffs and motivates the choice of the industries under investigation. The results of chapter 1 were used for the analysis in the remaining part of the work. The second chapter is devoted to an input-output analysis of the economic impacts of the US-China trade war both on these two countries and globally. The defined research approach is a sectoral representation of three countries: China, United States, rest of the world. The general conclusions based on the results of the I-O analysis were used for the recommendations of the third chapter of the thesis. The third chapter is devoted to forecasts for the possible future economic development of three industries and to the elaboration of recommendations for the United States, China and the rest of the world regarding the improvement of the economic performance of these industries. Statistical analysis was combined with theory in the development of this chapter. The statistical approach of hypothetical extraction was applied. The analysis of the scenario made it possible to answer questions such as: what happens if the United States and China stop trading in products of the i-th sector.
L'obiettivo di questa tesi è analizzare l'impatto che la guerra commerciale tra gli Stati Uniti e Cina ha avuto sull' industria automobilistica, tecnologica e agricola in entrambi i paesi e nel mondo. Nel primo capitolo della tesi è stata brevemente descritta la storia delle relazioni commerciali tra gli Stati Uniti e la Cina. Si è poi discusso delle ragioni che hanno portato all'emergere di una guerra commerciale tra i due stati (contesto per l'attuazione delle tariffe). Nel capitolo viene anche fornita una panoramica delle tariffe e si motiva la scelta delle industrie prese ad oggetto di indagine. I risultati del capitolo 1 sono stati utilizzati per l'analisi nella parte rimanente del lavoro. Il secondo capitolo è dedicato a un'analisi input-output degli impatti economici della guerra commerciale USA-Cina sia su questi due paesi che a livello globale. L'approccio di ricerca definito è una rappresentazione settoriale di tre paesi: Cina, Stati Uniti, resto del mondo. Le conclusioni generali basate sui risultati dell'analisi I-O sono state utilizzate per le raccomandazioni del terzo capitolo della tesi. Il terzo capitolo è dedicato alle previsioni per il possibile futuro sviluppo economico di tre industrie e all'elaborazione di raccomandazioni per Stati Uniti, Cina e il resto del mondo in merito al miglioramento delle performance economiche di queste industrie. Durante l'elaborazione di questo capitolo è stata combinata un'analisi statistica con la teoria. È stato applicato l'approccio statistico dell'estrazione ipotetica. L'analisi dello scenario ha permesso di rispondere a domande come: cosa succede se gli Stati Uniti e la Cina smettono di commerciare in prodotti del settore i-esimo.
Guerra commerciale USA-Cina: analisi del suo impatto sull'industria automobilistica, tecnologica e agricola in entrambi gli stati e nel mondo secondo il modello input-output.
STOIANOVA, YEVHENIIA
2021/2022
Abstract
The goal of this thesis is to analyze the impact that the trade war between the United States and China has had on the automotive, technology and agricultural industries in both countries and around the world. In the first chapter of the thesis the history of trade relations between the United States and China was briefly described. The reasons that led to the emergence of a trade war between the two states were then discussed (context for the implementation of tariffs). The chapter also provides an overview of the tariffs and motivates the choice of the industries under investigation. The results of chapter 1 were used for the analysis in the remaining part of the work. The second chapter is devoted to an input-output analysis of the economic impacts of the US-China trade war both on these two countries and globally. The defined research approach is a sectoral representation of three countries: China, United States, rest of the world. The general conclusions based on the results of the I-O analysis were used for the recommendations of the third chapter of the thesis. The third chapter is devoted to forecasts for the possible future economic development of three industries and to the elaboration of recommendations for the United States, China and the rest of the world regarding the improvement of the economic performance of these industries. Statistical analysis was combined with theory in the development of this chapter. The statistical approach of hypothetical extraction was applied. The analysis of the scenario made it possible to answer questions such as: what happens if the United States and China stop trading in products of the i-th sector.File | Dimensione | Formato | |
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Thesis Stoianova s1098531 (1).pdf
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Descrizione: US-CHINA TRADE WAR: ANALYSIS OF ITS IMPACT ON AUTOMOTIVE, TECH AND AGRICULTURE INDUSTRIES IN BOTH STATES AND WORLDWIDE ACCORDING TO THE INPUT-OUTPUT MODEL
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https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12075/12652