The development of renewable energy significantly contributes to European and national goals for reducing CO2 emissions and decarbonizing the economy. The European Green Deal has set the goal of achieving climate neutrality by 2050, which requires a significant energy transition to increase the penetration of renewable energy in the energy system. At the European level, the first target, set by Directive 2009/28/EC for 2020, was achieved by both Italy and the EU as a whole. The new target for 2030, set by Directive 2018/2001, was initially established at 32% at the European level but was later revised to 40% with the Fit for 55 Package, aiming for a 55% reduction in emissions by 2030. In December 2019, Italy adopted the National Integrated Energy and Climate Plan (PNIEC), which defines the goals for increasing the share of energy from renewable sources for each sector (electricity, heating, transport), in order to achieve the national overall goal of 30% of gross final energy consumption met by renewable sources by 2030. In 2022, the REPowerEU Plan further increased the target, which will be set by the renewable energy directive under approval, to a binding 42.5% and an indicative 45%. Following this, on June 30th, Italy submitted its proposal for updating the National Integrated Energy and Climate Plan (PNIEC) to the European Commission, to be adopted by June 2024. The overall target for covering energy consumption from renewable sources is set at 40% by 2030. Although the PNIEC has set the target at 40%, the study considered the value of 42.5% for Italy, which represents the binding European target for 2030 currently under approval. However, increasing the production of energy from renewable sources presents significant technical challenges such as managing variability, the unidirectionality of the electric grid, and the stability and resilience of the entire national electric system. In this regard, energy storage systems play a crucial role: balancing the demand and supply of electricity produced from renewable sources when they are not synchronized, and storing excess energy for future use when the source is no longer available. Additionally, these systems contribute significantly to increasing both the stability and resilience of the electric system. The aim of the study conducted is to evaluate, starting from the national energy situation in 2022, the additional capacity of photovoltaic plants needed to ensure the percentage of coverage of total consumption, as specified by the European directive RED III, by 2030. The analysis was conducted by separately considering the seven Italian market zones and, in addition to the size of the photovoltaic plants, the optimal size of battery energy storage systems (BESS) was also evaluated. These systems were appropriately sized and managed with the aim of also reducing energy imported from abroad, compared to the 2022 data, and maximizing self-consumption. Specifically, 2022 energy data was used as detailed information, divided by market zone, regarding national electricity production and demand was only made available for that year. This analysis does not consider future scenarios related to the development of energy demand or the market linked to it, as they are not known a priori and would require a dedicated study that goes beyond the scope of this document.
Lo sviluppo delle energie rinnovabili contribuisce notevolmente agli obiettivi europei e nazionali di riduzione delle emissioni di CO2 e di decarbonizzazione dell’economia. Il Green Deal europeo ha fissato l’obiettivo di raggiungere la neutralità climatica entro il 2050, il che richiede una significativa transizione energetica che favorisca una maggiore penetrazione delle energie rinnovabili nel sistema energetico. A livello europeo, il primo traguardo, fissato dalla direttiva 2009/28/CE per il 2020, è stato raggiunto sia dall’Italia che dall’UE nel suo insieme. Il nuovo obiettivo al 2030, fissato dalla Direttiva 2018/2001, è stato inizialmente stabilito al 32% a livello europeo, ma è stato successivamente rivisto al 40% con il Pacchetto Fit for 55, mirando a una riduzione del 55% delle emissioni entro il 2030. Nel dicembre 2019, l’Italia ha adottato il Piano Nazionale Integrato per l’Energia e il Clima, che definisce gli obiettivi di aumento della quota di energia da fonti rinnovabili per ciascun settore (elettrico, termico, trasporti), al fine di raggiungere l’obiettivo nazionale complessivo del 30% dei consumi finali lordi di energia soddisfatti da fonti rinnovabili entro il 2030. Nel 2022, il Piano REPowerEU ha ulteriormente aumentato l’obiettivo, che sarà fissato dalla direttiva sulle rinnovabili in via di approvazione al 42,5% vincolante e al 45% indicativo. In seguito a ciò, il 30 giugno scorso, l’Italia ha inviato alla Commissione europea la proposta di aggiornamento del Piano Nazionale Integrato per l’Energia e il Clima (PNIEC), da adottare entro giugno 2024. L’obiettivo globale di copertura dei consumi energetici da fonti rinnovabili è fissato al 40% entro il 2030. Nonostante il PNIEC abbia stabilito l’obiettivo al 40%, nello studio è stato preso in considerazione il valore del 42,5% per l’Italia, che rappresenta l’obiettivo europeo vincolante al 2030 attualmente in fase di approvazione. Tuttavia, l’aumento della produzione di energia da fonti rinnovabili presenta sfide tecniche significative come la gestione dell’aleatorità, l’unidirezionalità della rete elettrica e la stabilità e la resilienza dell’intero sistema elettrico nazionale. A questo proposito, i sistemi di accumulo dell’energia svolgono un ruolo cruciale: equilibrare la domanda e l’offerta di energia elettrica prodotta da fonti rinnovabili quando non sono sincronizzate, e immagazzinare l’eccesso di energia per utilizzi futuri quando la fonte non è più disponibile. Inoltre, questi sistemi contribuiscono notevolmente ad aumentare sia la stabilità che la resilienza del sistema elettrico. L’obiettivo dello studio svolto è quello di valutare, a partire dalla situazione energetica nazionale del 2022, la capacità aggiuntiva di impianti fotovoltaici necessari a garantire la percentuale di copertura dei consumi totali, come specificato dalla direttiva europea RED III, entro il 2030. L’analisi è stata svolta considerando separatamente le 7 zone di mercato italiane e, oltre alla taglia degli impianti fotovoltaici, è stata valutata anche la taglia ottimale di sistemi di batterie (BESS). Quest’ultimi sono stati opportunamente dimensionati e gestiti con il fine di ridurre anche l’energia importata dall’estero, sempre rispetto ai dati del 2022, e di massimizzare l’autoconsumo. In particolare, si specifica che sono stati utilizzati i dati energetici del 2022 in quanto solo per quell’anno sono state rese disponibili le informazioni di dettaglio, divise per zone di mercato, in merito alla produzione e alla domanda elettrica nazionale. La presente analisi non considera futuri scenari relativi allo sviluppo sia della domanda di energia, sia del mercato ad essa legata in quanto non noti a priori e che richiederebbero uno studio dedicato che esula dallo scopo del presente documento.
Evoluzione del fotovoltaico e dei sistemi di accumulo a batteria in Italia per raggiungere gli obiettivi della RED III al 2030
MILLETTI, TOMMASO
2023/2024
Abstract
The development of renewable energy significantly contributes to European and national goals for reducing CO2 emissions and decarbonizing the economy. The European Green Deal has set the goal of achieving climate neutrality by 2050, which requires a significant energy transition to increase the penetration of renewable energy in the energy system. At the European level, the first target, set by Directive 2009/28/EC for 2020, was achieved by both Italy and the EU as a whole. The new target for 2030, set by Directive 2018/2001, was initially established at 32% at the European level but was later revised to 40% with the Fit for 55 Package, aiming for a 55% reduction in emissions by 2030. In December 2019, Italy adopted the National Integrated Energy and Climate Plan (PNIEC), which defines the goals for increasing the share of energy from renewable sources for each sector (electricity, heating, transport), in order to achieve the national overall goal of 30% of gross final energy consumption met by renewable sources by 2030. In 2022, the REPowerEU Plan further increased the target, which will be set by the renewable energy directive under approval, to a binding 42.5% and an indicative 45%. Following this, on June 30th, Italy submitted its proposal for updating the National Integrated Energy and Climate Plan (PNIEC) to the European Commission, to be adopted by June 2024. The overall target for covering energy consumption from renewable sources is set at 40% by 2030. Although the PNIEC has set the target at 40%, the study considered the value of 42.5% for Italy, which represents the binding European target for 2030 currently under approval. However, increasing the production of energy from renewable sources presents significant technical challenges such as managing variability, the unidirectionality of the electric grid, and the stability and resilience of the entire national electric system. In this regard, energy storage systems play a crucial role: balancing the demand and supply of electricity produced from renewable sources when they are not synchronized, and storing excess energy for future use when the source is no longer available. Additionally, these systems contribute significantly to increasing both the stability and resilience of the electric system. The aim of the study conducted is to evaluate, starting from the national energy situation in 2022, the additional capacity of photovoltaic plants needed to ensure the percentage of coverage of total consumption, as specified by the European directive RED III, by 2030. The analysis was conducted by separately considering the seven Italian market zones and, in addition to the size of the photovoltaic plants, the optimal size of battery energy storage systems (BESS) was also evaluated. These systems were appropriately sized and managed with the aim of also reducing energy imported from abroad, compared to the 2022 data, and maximizing self-consumption. Specifically, 2022 energy data was used as detailed information, divided by market zone, regarding national electricity production and demand was only made available for that year. This analysis does not consider future scenarios related to the development of energy demand or the market linked to it, as they are not known a priori and would require a dedicated study that goes beyond the scope of this document.| File | Dimensione | Formato | |
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https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12075/18300