Corporate Valuation Under Exogenous Shocks: From Deterministic DCF to Stochastic Extensions

This thesis modernizes intrinsic corporate valuation by integrating traditional financial modeling with macroeconomic, geopolitical, and technological analyses. Part I establishes a rigorous, first-principles Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) framework, while identifying the empirical limitations of standard static methodologies in conglomerate-dominated industries. Part II employs real-world case studies to demonstrate how exogenous shocks—including AI investment cycles, pandemics, tariff policies, and geopolitical conflicts—dynamically alter micro-level valuation inputs such as the Total Addressable Market (TAM), operating margins, and systemic risk. To overcome the fragility of single-point estimates, the research introduces stochastic extensions using Monte Carlo simulations to generate comprehensive probability distributions. Ultimately, this work argues that accurately pricing modern risk and opportunity demands a multidisciplinary approach, synthesizing strict corporate finance with institutional economics, computer science, and global strategy.