Forecasting analysis plays a crucial role for the planning of the operational activities and for the formulation and achievement of the strategic objectives of the company in order to maximize profits and to limit the negative impact that a turbulent external environment could have on its economic stability. This is why companies often turn to agencies specialized in market researches to carry out this type of forecast. The aim of this thesis is to implement a forecasting analysis of the European market for office furniture adopting a quantitative approach, in line with professional standards as this work is the outcome of the curricular internship and of the following collaboration with CSIL, Centre for Industrial Studies, based in Milan. In particular, a VAR (Vector Autoregressive model) approach will be applied to specific time series to predict the future trend of office furniture consumption in Italy, Germany, France, Poland and European Union (28) in the years 2020-2021. But, given the Covid-19 pandemic spread of this year, the results of these two-years forecasts are part of a scenario without Covid-19 whose accuracy requires further analysis and discussion trying to describe also the post Covid-19 scenario. The differences in the predictions of the two scenarios will emerge together with the major offices’ changes and the introduction of new technologies and ways of working caused by the 2020 pandemic spread.
L’analisi previsionale viene utilizzata principalmente per prevedere le tendenze future del mercato. Esistono, infatti, statistiche attendibili che permettono di ottenere previsioni delle variabili ritenute rilevanti per i processi decisionali delle imprese. La capacità di assumere un comportamento proattivo nei confronti del mercato in cui operano è un fattore chiave per il successo delle aziende, ma l'utilizzo di strumenti e tecniche di previsione richiede conoscenze e modalità specifiche; motivo per cui le imprese si rivolgono spesso ad agenzie specializzate in ricerche di mercato per effettuare questo tipo di previsione. Lo scopo di questa tesi è quello di realizzare un’analisi previsionale del mercato europeo dei mobili per ufficio adottando un approccio quantitativo ed in linea con standard professionali in quanto tale lavoro è il risultato del tirocinio curriculare e della successiva collaborazione con CSIL - Centro Studi Industria Leggera di Milano. In particolare, verrà utilizzato un approccio VAR per prevedere l'andamento futuro del consumo di mobili per ufficio in Italia, Germania, Francia, Polonia e Unione Europea (28) negli anni 2020-2021. Ma, vista la diffusione della pandemia Covid-19 di quest'anno, i risultati di queste previsioni biennali fanno parte di uno scenario pre Covid-19 la cui accuratezza richiede ulteriori analisi e discussioni cercando di descrivere anche lo scenario post Covid-19. Emergeranno delle differenze nelle previsioni dei due scenari insieme ai principali cambiamenti nell’arredamento degli uffici e all’introduzione di nuove tecnologie e modalità di lavoro.
Forecasting Analysis of the European Market for Office Furniture
POMILI, LUCREZIA
2019/2020
Abstract
Forecasting analysis plays a crucial role for the planning of the operational activities and for the formulation and achievement of the strategic objectives of the company in order to maximize profits and to limit the negative impact that a turbulent external environment could have on its economic stability. This is why companies often turn to agencies specialized in market researches to carry out this type of forecast. The aim of this thesis is to implement a forecasting analysis of the European market for office furniture adopting a quantitative approach, in line with professional standards as this work is the outcome of the curricular internship and of the following collaboration with CSIL, Centre for Industrial Studies, based in Milan. In particular, a VAR (Vector Autoregressive model) approach will be applied to specific time series to predict the future trend of office furniture consumption in Italy, Germany, France, Poland and European Union (28) in the years 2020-2021. But, given the Covid-19 pandemic spread of this year, the results of these two-years forecasts are part of a scenario without Covid-19 whose accuracy requires further analysis and discussion trying to describe also the post Covid-19 scenario. The differences in the predictions of the two scenarios will emerge together with the major offices’ changes and the introduction of new technologies and ways of working caused by the 2020 pandemic spread.File | Dimensione | Formato | |
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L. POMILI tesi.pdf
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https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12075/4715