At the end of the Second World War, Argentina was one of the most prosperous economies in the world: its gross domestic product represented more than a quarter of the GDP of all of Latin America, its national per capita income was among the top ten in the world and the first of the continent, Argentine exports covered 7% of global foreign trade and the country could count on a vast wealth of natural resources. Argentina was also a pioneering country in terms of social legislation, with a literacy rate higher than the one of many European countries and a highly inclusive education system, that allowed high and accessible education even to the poorer classes. Its wealth and prosperity meant that this South American country represented for many years the dream of many European emigrants in search of fortune: in 1914 30% of the Argentine population was born abroad and 80% of immigrants were of Spanish or Italian origin, coming from the poorest and most backward areas of Southern Europe. The influx of European migrants continued more or less until 1950, when the welfare state established by Peròn had further increased the attractiveness exercised by the country on those that were leaving Europe in the hope of a better life. However, at some point, the migratory flows stopped and many immigrants even began to return to their homeland literally escaping from a country that had nothing more to offer. Today Argentina has one of the most difficult economic situations in the world, with about half the population living below the poverty line, a public debt that almost entirely covers the national GDP, stable double-digit inflation and structural problems of the public budget and the foreign trade balance. The financial crisis of 2001 was only the partial result of decades of economic, political and social instability whose causes have deep roots, well rooted in time. The current situation in Argentina, which last year also touched upon a new default on sovereign debt, is not the result of inappropriate decisions by a particular government or the consequence of a single adverse event, but is the result of years and years of wrong choices, which led the country to a free fall that has not yet stopped. The objective of this paper is to critically and analytically retrace the last seventy years of Argentine economic history, with the aim of identifying the main causes that have led one of the major world economic powers to become the protagonist of the most serious case of non-compliance payment obligations on foreign debt that never occurred up to that point. The subject of analysis will therefore be the economic policies adopted by the various governments that followed one another in the aftermath of the world conflict, placing greater emphasis on the reforms that played a substantial role in the manifestation of the main negative developments in the Argentine economy. In particular, in the first two chapters it will emerge that the economic difficulties experienced by Argentina are closely connected to an equally complex political and social framework, which has seen the frequent alternation of dictatorships and weak democratic governments, constantly accompanied by terrorist and violent acts and street protests. In the third chapter, the economic developments of the 90s will be analyzed, emphasizing the role that the international economic crises and the reforms introduced by the Menem government had in the occurrence of the 2001 financial crisis, paying particular attention to the structural difficulties related to the public budget. Finally, the work will conclude with an analysis of the Argentine economy of the twentieth century, with a quick look at the current situation and the future prospects of the country.
Al termine della Seconda Guerra Mondiale l’Argentina era una delle economie più floride al mondo: il suo prodotto interno lordo rappresentava più di un quarto del PIL di tutta l’America Latina, il reddito procapite nazionale era tra i primi dieci del mondo e il primo del continente, le esportazioni argentine coprivano il 7% del commercio estero globale e il paese poteva contare su un vasto patrimonio di risorse naturali. La sua ricchezza e prosperità hanno fatto sì che questo paese del Sudamerica rappresentasse per molti anni il sogno di numerosi emigranti europei in cerca di fortuna: nel 1914 il 30% della popolazione argentina era nato all’estero e l’80% degli immigrati era di origine spagnola o italiana, proveniente dalle zone più povere e arretrate dell’Europa Meridionale. L’afflusso di migranti europei continuò più o meno fino al 1950, quando lo stato assistenziale istituito da Peròn aveva aumentato ancor di più l’attrattiva esercitata dal paese su chi lasciava l’Europa nella speranza di una vita migliore. Tuttavia, a un certo punto, i flussi migratori si sono interrotti e molti immigrati cominciarono addirittura a far ritorno alla loro terra d’origine, letteralmente scappando da un paese che non aveva più niente da offrire. Oggi l’Argentina conta una delle situazioni economiche più difficili al mondo, con circa metà della popolazione che vive al di sotto della soglia di povertà, un debito pubblico che copre quasi interamente il PIL nazionale, inflazione stabilmente in doppia cifra e problemi strutturali del bilancio statale e del saldo commerciale con l’estero. La crisi finanziaria del 2001 è stata solo l’esito parziale di decenni di instabilità economica, politica e sociale le cui cause hanno radici profonde, ben radicate nel tempo. La situazione attuale dell’Argentina, che lo scorso anno ha peraltro sfiorato un nuovo default sul debito sovrano, non è effetto di decisioni inopportune da parte di un determinato governo o conseguenza di un singolo evento avverso, ma è frutto di anni e anni di scelte sbagliate, che hanno condotto il paese ad una caduta libera che tutt’ora non si è ancora arrestata. L’obiettivo di questo elaborato è ripercorrere in maniera critica e analitica gli ultimi settant’anni della storia economica argentina, nell’intento di individuare le principali cause che hanno portato una delle maggiori potenze economiche mondiali a rendersi protagonista del più grave caso di inadempienza degli obblighi di pagamento sul debito estero mai verificatosi fino a quel momento. Oggetto di analisi saranno dunque le politiche economiche adottate dai vari governi che si sono succeduti all’indomani del conflitto mondiale, ponendo maggiore enfasi sulle riforme che hanno avuto un ruolo sostanziale nel manifestarsi dei principali sviluppi negativi dell’economia argentina. In particolare, nei primi due capitoli emergerà il fatto che le difficoltà economiche sperimentate dall’Argentina sono strettamente connesse a un quadro politico e sociale altrettanto complesso, che ha visto il frequente alternarsi di dittature e deboli governi democratici, costantemente accompagnato da atti terroristici e violente proteste di piazza. Nel terzo capitolo verranno analizzati gli sviluppi economici degli anni ’90, sottolineando il ruolo che le crisi economiche internazionali e le riforme introdotte dal governo Menem hanno avuto nel verificarsi della crisi finanziaria del 2001, ponendo particolare attenzione sulle difficoltà strutturali relative al bilancio pubblico. Infine, il lavoro si concluderà con l’analisi dell’economia argentina del XX secolo, con un rapido sguardo sulla situazione attuale e sulle prospettive future del paese.
Argentina: storia di una crisi economica senza fine
CAPUANO, MASSIMO
2019/2020
Abstract
At the end of the Second World War, Argentina was one of the most prosperous economies in the world: its gross domestic product represented more than a quarter of the GDP of all of Latin America, its national per capita income was among the top ten in the world and the first of the continent, Argentine exports covered 7% of global foreign trade and the country could count on a vast wealth of natural resources. Argentina was also a pioneering country in terms of social legislation, with a literacy rate higher than the one of many European countries and a highly inclusive education system, that allowed high and accessible education even to the poorer classes. Its wealth and prosperity meant that this South American country represented for many years the dream of many European emigrants in search of fortune: in 1914 30% of the Argentine population was born abroad and 80% of immigrants were of Spanish or Italian origin, coming from the poorest and most backward areas of Southern Europe. The influx of European migrants continued more or less until 1950, when the welfare state established by Peròn had further increased the attractiveness exercised by the country on those that were leaving Europe in the hope of a better life. However, at some point, the migratory flows stopped and many immigrants even began to return to their homeland literally escaping from a country that had nothing more to offer. Today Argentina has one of the most difficult economic situations in the world, with about half the population living below the poverty line, a public debt that almost entirely covers the national GDP, stable double-digit inflation and structural problems of the public budget and the foreign trade balance. The financial crisis of 2001 was only the partial result of decades of economic, political and social instability whose causes have deep roots, well rooted in time. The current situation in Argentina, which last year also touched upon a new default on sovereign debt, is not the result of inappropriate decisions by a particular government or the consequence of a single adverse event, but is the result of years and years of wrong choices, which led the country to a free fall that has not yet stopped. The objective of this paper is to critically and analytically retrace the last seventy years of Argentine economic history, with the aim of identifying the main causes that have led one of the major world economic powers to become the protagonist of the most serious case of non-compliance payment obligations on foreign debt that never occurred up to that point. The subject of analysis will therefore be the economic policies adopted by the various governments that followed one another in the aftermath of the world conflict, placing greater emphasis on the reforms that played a substantial role in the manifestation of the main negative developments in the Argentine economy. In particular, in the first two chapters it will emerge that the economic difficulties experienced by Argentina are closely connected to an equally complex political and social framework, which has seen the frequent alternation of dictatorships and weak democratic governments, constantly accompanied by terrorist and violent acts and street protests. In the third chapter, the economic developments of the 90s will be analyzed, emphasizing the role that the international economic crises and the reforms introduced by the Menem government had in the occurrence of the 2001 financial crisis, paying particular attention to the structural difficulties related to the public budget. Finally, the work will conclude with an analysis of the Argentine economy of the twentieth century, with a quick look at the current situation and the future prospects of the country.| File | Dimensione | Formato | |
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https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12075/4738