In the present master thesis the atmospheric dispersion of pollutants are discussed.Mainly in the case study the pollutant referred to is PM10 (and therefore PM2.5). HARP-hot spots analysis and reporting program, a project of California (USA) is the international reference for our project. It correlates the gaseous emissions present on a territory with the risk to the human health of the population that inhabits the same areas through air dispersion modelling and dose-response functions. Therefore, the focus of our project was on assessing exposure related to an emission scenario and to evaluate the related risk. Exposure tells us how much and for how long the populations is subject to a source of pollution. The final objective is therefore the creation of a tool capable, through few input data (such as the emission source, the type of pollutant and meteorological data etc.) of providing directly health impact scenarios with the corresponding numerical values.The project consisted in searching for the implementation of a software able to elaborate long-term predictions looking at the impact on the ground of the various pollutants released into the atmosphere by a punctual source, like that of a chimney. To do this, the open source code of the AERMOD software was used;In particular, meteorological data of Camerano station (AN) were exploited, thanks to which it was possible to preprocess the file containing the weather part and later these were processed by the AERMOD code to elaborate the forecasts about the concentrations of pollutants to which the population is exposed after a period of one hour, 24 hours and in particular at 1 year. Precisely these last ones, called "period", were the ones we were interested in.Another component of the AERMOD software, AERPLOT, was also used. This tool was useful for the final graphic display of the results, in fact it allows to project, through the GoogleEarth interface, a list of pollutants directly on the territory. Results show realistic values, but it is important to remember that the input data do not refer to a real situation and we applied software with flat setup. Moreover, data of deaths or hospitalizations still miss and are not published by competent authorities. In any case the comparison between the results of Aermod opensource and those of HARP show same values, confirming the correct input data file. We tested elevated setup using AermodView and some differences were found in the analysis of peak concentration but, in any case, the results are in the same order of magnitude. Regarding the location of the point of maximum exposure, the two softwares are agreed and place it at almost the same distance. Leaving out the peak concentrations, for which there is a deviation of about 0.1 μg/m3, for the rest of the simulations the values obtained are very similar, with differences that, regarding the particulate matter, are negligible. We conclude our study by analysing the risk assessment for the studied area and predicted concentrations found considering long term (1 year) exposure to diesel engine exhaust. To do this, we calculated the risk (hazard quotient (HQ) and cancer risk) per each concentration found around the emissions source. Results show that there is no toxic risk (HQ=0.005-0.08 < 1) in the studied area with respect to the input data assumed. Based on risk assessment standalone tool by HARP, the cancer risk is up to 10-4.
Nella presente tesi di laurea viene discussa la dispersione atmosferica di inquinanti. Principalmente nel caso di studio l'inquinante a cui si fa riferimento è PM10 (e quindi PM2.5). "Programma HARP-hot spot analysis and reporting", un progetto della California (USA) è il riferimento internazionale per il nostro progetto. Correla le emissioni gassose presenti su un territorio con il rischio per la salute umana della popolazione che abita le stesse aree attraverso la modellizzazione della dispersione e le funzioni dose-risposta. Pertanto, il focus del nostro progetto era sulla valutazione dell'esposizione correlata a uno scenario di emissione e sulla valutazione del rischio correlato. L'esposizione ci dice quanto e per quanto tempo le popolazioni sono soggette a una fonte di inquinamento. L'obiettivo finale è quindi la creazione di uno strumento in grado, attraverso pochi dati di input (come la fonte di emissione, il tipo di inquinante e di dati meteorologici ecc.) Di fornire direttamente scenari di impatto sulla salute con i corrispondenti valori numerici. Il progetto consisteva nella ricerca per l'implementazione di un software in grado di elaborare previsioni a lungo termine osservando l'impatto sul terreno dei vari inquinanti rilasciati nell'atmosfera da una fonte puntuale, come quella di un camino. Per fare ciò è stato utilizzato il codice open source del software AERMOD; in particolare sono stati sfruttati i dati meteorologici della stazione di Camerano (AN), grazie ai quali è stato possibile preelaborare il file contenente la parte meteorologica e successivamente questi sono stati elaborati dal Codice AERMOD per elaborare le previsioni sulle concentrazioni di inquinanti a cui è esposta la popolazione dopo un periodo di un'ora, 24 ore e in particolare a 1 anno. Proprio questi ultimi, chiamati "period", erano quelli a cui eravamo interessati. È stato utilizzato anche un altro componente del software AERMOD, AERPLOT. Questo strumento è stato utile per la visualizzazione grafica finale dei risultati, infatti consente di proiettare, attraverso l'interfaccia di Google Earth, un elenco di concentratzioni direttamente sul territorio. I risultati mostrano valori realistici, ma è importante ricordare che i dati di input non si riferiscono a una situazione reale e abbiamo applicato il software con una configurazione "flat". Inoltre, i dati sui decessi o sui ricoveri mancano ancora e non vengono pubblicati dalle autorità competenti. In ogni caso il confronto tra i risultati di Aermod opensource e quelli di HARP mostra gli stessi valori, confermando il file di dati di input corretto. Abbiamo testato il software in modalità "elevated" utilizzando AermodView e sono state rilevate alcune differenze nell'analisi del picco di concentrazione ma, in ogni caso, i risultati sono nello stesso ordine di grandezza. Per quanto riguarda la posizione del punto di massima esposizione, i due software concordano ed esso viene posizionato quasi alla stessa distanza. Tralasciando le concentrazioni di picco, per le quali vi è una deviazione di circa 0,1 μg / m3, per il resto delle simulazioni i valori ottenuti sono molto simili, con differenze che, per quanto riguarda il particolato, sono trascurabili. Concludiamo il nostro studio analizzando la valutazione del rischio per l'area studiata e le concentrazioni previste rilevate considerando l'esposizione a lungo termine (1 anno) rispetto al "engine diesel exhaust". Per fare ciò, abbiamo calcolato il rischio (quoziente di pericolo (HQ) e rischio di cancro) per ogni concentrazione trovata intorno alla fonte di emissione. I risultati mostrano che non esiste alcun rischio tossico (HQ = 0,005-0,08 <1) nell'area studiata rispetto ai dati di input ipotizzati. Basato sullo strumento risk assessment standalone tool di HARP, il rischio di cancro è fino a 10-4.
From diffusive analysis of airborne pollutants to health risk assessment
COLOMBO, PIERANGELO
2018/2019
Abstract
In the present master thesis the atmospheric dispersion of pollutants are discussed.Mainly in the case study the pollutant referred to is PM10 (and therefore PM2.5). HARP-hot spots analysis and reporting program, a project of California (USA) is the international reference for our project. It correlates the gaseous emissions present on a territory with the risk to the human health of the population that inhabits the same areas through air dispersion modelling and dose-response functions. Therefore, the focus of our project was on assessing exposure related to an emission scenario and to evaluate the related risk. Exposure tells us how much and for how long the populations is subject to a source of pollution. The final objective is therefore the creation of a tool capable, through few input data (such as the emission source, the type of pollutant and meteorological data etc.) of providing directly health impact scenarios with the corresponding numerical values.The project consisted in searching for the implementation of a software able to elaborate long-term predictions looking at the impact on the ground of the various pollutants released into the atmosphere by a punctual source, like that of a chimney. To do this, the open source code of the AERMOD software was used;In particular, meteorological data of Camerano station (AN) were exploited, thanks to which it was possible to preprocess the file containing the weather part and later these were processed by the AERMOD code to elaborate the forecasts about the concentrations of pollutants to which the population is exposed after a period of one hour, 24 hours and in particular at 1 year. Precisely these last ones, called "period", were the ones we were interested in.Another component of the AERMOD software, AERPLOT, was also used. This tool was useful for the final graphic display of the results, in fact it allows to project, through the GoogleEarth interface, a list of pollutants directly on the territory. Results show realistic values, but it is important to remember that the input data do not refer to a real situation and we applied software with flat setup. Moreover, data of deaths or hospitalizations still miss and are not published by competent authorities. In any case the comparison between the results of Aermod opensource and those of HARP show same values, confirming the correct input data file. We tested elevated setup using AermodView and some differences were found in the analysis of peak concentration but, in any case, the results are in the same order of magnitude. Regarding the location of the point of maximum exposure, the two softwares are agreed and place it at almost the same distance. Leaving out the peak concentrations, for which there is a deviation of about 0.1 μg/m3, for the rest of the simulations the values obtained are very similar, with differences that, regarding the particulate matter, are negligible. We conclude our study by analysing the risk assessment for the studied area and predicted concentrations found considering long term (1 year) exposure to diesel engine exhaust. To do this, we calculated the risk (hazard quotient (HQ) and cancer risk) per each concentration found around the emissions source. Results show that there is no toxic risk (HQ=0.005-0.08 < 1) in the studied area with respect to the input data assumed. Based on risk assessment standalone tool by HARP, the cancer risk is up to 10-4.| File | Dimensione | Formato | |
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Tesi_Colombo4.pdf
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https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12075/6962